Korea voted for president yesterday. I was quite confident already that the left-leaning candidate, Moon Jae-in (문재인), was sliding to victory. The right has been in disarray since the scandals broke around Park Geun-hye last year, and her impeachment and removal from office a few months ago, leading to this accelerated presidential election schedule, somewhat guaranteed that the electorate would swing leftward.
The main right-leaning candidate for the new Liberty Party (the previous Saenuri Party, trying to rebrand itself in the wake of the scandals), Hong Jun-pyo, didn’t help matters by having Trumpesque crude sexist language come to light in his own past, including bragging about a date rape while in college. I had one coworker tell me that she would normally vote Saenuri (i.e. conservative, and probably, I speculate, because of her evangelical religious affiliation), but she couldn’t vote for Hong because he was “repugnant and disgusting.” I can only wish that US evangelicals could have been more morally upstanding vis-a-vis Trump.
So the conservatives shot themselves repeatedly in both feet, and the normally minority liberals wafted into the presidency, despite almost everyone disliking Moon almost as much as Americans seem to have disliked Hillary Clinton.
If one thinks in terms of policy and ideology, I also suspect Moon’s position was strengthed precisely because of Trump’s victory in the US. The Koreans deeply distrust Trump because of his being on the record to reevaluate the US “protection” of South Korea. Thus Moon’s stated intention to reexamine the relationship with the US probably resonated as well. How all this plays out vis-a-vis North Korea, I can’t really say. My instinct is that, to the extent the US and South Korea are NOT getting along, the North Koreans will be pleased and therefore LESS likely to do anything dangerous. So in fact my personal feeling, which is perhaps misplaced optimism, is that Moon’s election will be good for lowering tensions with the North.
Having said all that, I want to return to something I looked at during the last election cycle: the ghosts in the electoral map.
Moon’s victory map seems to parallel the 900AD “Late 3 Kingdoms Era” (후삼국시대 [husamguk sidae]) in Korea. Look at the two maps: the conservative “rump” in the southeast is later Silla, long past its glory days, while new Baekjae and the ascendant Goryeo dominate the peninsula – see the maps along the right.
I was thinking about this “ghosts in the map” idea because I also ran across someone who mentioned that Macron’s support in the recent French presidential election eerily paralleled the Plantagenet lands (i.e. English control) in 12th century France – see the maps below.
[daily log: walking, 6.5 km]