Caveat: Not for lack of stones

Here are some random thoughts that have been floating around in my brain, mostly due to the fact that one of my weird hobbies is reading economics blogs.

On anthropogenic climate change

The entire "stop global warming" movement is predicated on the fallacy that, if we can just make people see the problem, they will immediately understand that it is a problem and so work to stop it. I don't think that's quite so obvious. There are too many narrow-minded people who live in cold climates and like to vacation in Florida or Mexico. Their reaction to being convinced of the reality of anthropogenic of global warming would be to shrug, buy a Hummer, and start investing in Minnesota or Manitoba real estate. The geopolitical equivalent of this is that there are entire countries capable of the same reaction.

Here's a scary thought: Why should Russia work to combat global warming? A warmer planet Earth puts that vast country in a more "human friendly" biome – tundra beomces taiga and taiga becomes steppe, and Siberia's agricultural potential is immense, if only it was a bit wetter and warmer. If I were a nationalistically-inclined long-term planner in Russia, with Putin's ear, I'd be doing everything possible to increase carbon output. And if we look at Russian energy policy, that does seem to be the approach.

The real problem with climate change isn't the deniers, it's the apathetic and faux-apathetic (i.e. Russia in the above scenario).

On "peak oil"

Somewhat relatedly, why do the Saudis keep increasing output? I think the answer is clear, there, too. They have been operating for more than a generation with a very sophisticated understanding of their position vis-a-vis the world energy market and our Age of Petroleum. In the 1980s, the oil minister, Ahmed Zaki Yamani, observed that, "Thirty years from now there will be a huge amount of oil – and no buyers. Oil will be left in the ground. The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil."

I find this insight profoundly compelling. The age of oil will end with oil in the ground – because technology and civiliztion will either have moved on, or self-destructed. It's almost obvious to anyone capable of long-term thinking. Given that fact, there is no long-term benefit to hoarding oil. Pump and sell today, for tomorrow it will have no value.

[daily log: walking, 6km]