Caveat: Tree #1449 “The distant ones”

This tree witnessed sunlit, snow-covered mountain in the distance.

picture

“Our Earth is degenerate in these later days; there are signs that the world is speedily coming to an end; bribery and corruption are common; children no longer obey their parents; every man wants to write a book and the end of the world is evidently approaching.” – from an Assyrian clay tablet, circa 2800 B.C.E.

picture[daily log: walking, 2km;]

Caveat: OpenGeofiction Aggregate Active User Data (Since Migration)

[This is a cross-post from my other blog]

I decided to try to brush off some very rusty SQL skills and write a query against the OGF database to find out what our monthly active user counts looked like.

This data can only be compiled accurately for dates since the “migration”, which was in August, 2021. Before that changesets are not properly dated as they were all loaded at once from the old instance (Thilo’s) to the new instance (Luciano’s).

I decided to categorize unique user counts for each month by their “start year” (e.g. a user like myself would be under start year 2014). That way I could also see how old “generations” of users drop off over time.

I started with a nested SQL query, which is basically what I used to do professionally about 20 years ago, but it’s been a while since I wrote raw queries against complex data like this. It comes back fairly quickly though, and this is definitely the result of a little bit of trial and error. I’m working with two tables in the openstreetmap PostgreSQL database: users and changesets. I’m counting changesets by the month they occur and by a breakdown of users by when they started using the OGF site (with a special category for users who are “new” in the month they are active).

Here’s the query I made and ran at the PSQL prompt on the server (these data structures are all public knowledge, part of the OSM specification, so I don’t feel worried sharing it).

SELECT
 t.changeset_month,
 t.user_first_year,
 t.new_user_flag,
 COUNT(DISTINCT t.user_id) AS count_users,
 COUNT(t.changeset_id) AS count_changesets
FROM (
  SELECT
   i.changeset_id,
   i.changeset_month,
   i.user_id,
   LEFT(i.creation_month, 4) AS user_first_year,
   CASE
    WHEN i.creation_month = i.changeset_month
    THEN 'new_user'
    ELSE 'old_user'
   END AS new_user_flag
  FROM (
    SELECT
     to_char(changesets.closed_at, 'YYYY-MM') AS changeset_month,
     changesets.user_id AS user_id,
     changesets.id AS changeset_id,
     to_char(users.creation_time, 'YYYY-MM') as creation_month
    FROM changesets INNER JOIN users
    ON users.id = changesets.user_id
    WHERE changesets.closed_at >= '2021-10-01'::date
    AND changesets.closed_at <= '2022-12-31'::date
  ) AS i
) AS t
GROUP BY
 t.changeset_month,
 t.user_first_year,
 t.new_user_flag
ORDER BY
 t.changeset_month,
 t.user_first_year,
 t.new_user_flag DESC;

Here’s the raw output I got.

changeset_month | user_first_year | new_user_flag | count_users | count_changesets
-----------------+-----------------+---------------+-------------+------------------
2021-10         | 2013            | old_user      |          10 |              112
2021-10         | 2014            | old_user      |          17 |             1098
2021-10         | 2015            | old_user      |          23 |              720
2021-10         | 2016            | old_user      |          24 |              448
2021-10         | 2017            | old_user      |          34 |              787
2021-10         | 2018            | old_user      |          45 |             1088
2021-10         | 2019            | old_user      |          35 |              750
2021-10         | 2020            | old_user      |          28 |              557
2021-10         | 2021            | old_user      |          34 |              492
2021-10         | 2021            | new_user      |          24 |              280
2021-11         | 2012            | old_user      |           1 |                1
2021-11         | 2013            | old_user      |           8 |              207
2021-11         | 2014            | old_user      |          19 |              687
2021-11         | 2015            | old_user      |          26 |              697
2021-11         | 2016            | old_user      |          21 |              408
2021-11         | 2017            | old_user      |          36 |              738
2021-11         | 2018            | old_user      |          41 |             1271
2021-11         | 2019            | old_user      |          29 |              663
2021-11         | 2020            | old_user      |          26 |              749
2021-11         | 2021            | old_user      |          28 |              439
2021-11         | 2021            | new_user      |          23 |              498
2021-12         | 2013            | old_user      |          10 |              335
2021-12         | 2014            | old_user      |          17 |              773
2021-12         | 2015            | old_user      |          23 |              892
2021-12         | 2016            | old_user      |          25 |              657
2021-12         | 2017            | old_user      |          31 |              703
2021-12         | 2018            | old_user      |          43 |             1506
2021-12         | 2019            | old_user      |          29 |              769
2021-12         | 2020            | old_user      |          25 |              664
2021-12         | 2021            | old_user      |          45 |              854
2021-12         | 2021            | new_user      |          22 |              250
2022-01         | 2012            | old_user      |           1 |                3
2022-01         | 2013            | old_user      |           7 |              174
2022-01         | 2014            | old_user      |          13 |             1023
2022-01         | 2015            | old_user      |          22 |              805
2022-01         | 2016            | old_user      |          23 |              568
2022-01         | 2017            | old_user      |          32 |              753
2022-01         | 2018            | old_user      |          39 |             1642
2022-01         | 2019            | old_user      |          30 |             1062
2022-01         | 2020            | old_user      |          30 |              878
2022-01         | 2021            | old_user      |          42 |              703
2022-01         | 2022            | new_user      |          24 |              192
2022-02         | 2013            | old_user      |          10 |              397
2022-02         | 2014            | old_user      |          19 |             1251
2022-02         | 2015            | old_user      |          21 |              768
2022-02         | 2016            | old_user      |          22 |              540
2022-02         | 2017            | old_user      |          30 |             1136
2022-02         | 2018            | old_user      |          41 |             1612
2022-02         | 2019            | old_user      |          25 |              617
2022-02         | 2020            | old_user      |          27 |              888
2022-02         | 2021            | old_user      |          41 |              722
2022-02         | 2022            | old_user      |           8 |              117
2022-02         | 2022            | new_user      |          21 |              234
2022-03         | 2013            | old_user      |           8 |               61
2022-03         | 2014            | old_user      |          17 |             1384
2022-03         | 2015            | old_user      |          25 |              927
2022-03         | 2016            | old_user      |          22 |              705
2022-03         | 2017            | old_user      |          35 |             1498
2022-03         | 2018            | old_user      |          41 |             1211
2022-03         | 2019            | old_user      |          33 |              861
2022-03         | 2020            | old_user      |          30 |             1018
2022-03         | 2021            | old_user      |          38 |             1458
2022-03         | 2022            | old_user      |          13 |              491
2022-03         | 2022            | new_user      |          27 |              758
2022-04         | 2013            | old_user      |           7 |              186
2022-04         | 2014            | old_user      |          17 |              871
2022-04         | 2015            | old_user      |          24 |              500
2022-04         | 2016            | old_user      |          19 |              683
2022-04         | 2017            | old_user      |          30 |             1093
2022-04         | 2018            | old_user      |          39 |             1291
2022-04         | 2019            | old_user      |          29 |              833
2022-04         | 2020            | old_user      |          28 |              673
2022-04         | 2021            | old_user      |          32 |              753
2022-04         | 2022            | old_user      |          25 |              900
2022-04         | 2022            | new_user      |          21 |              231
2022-05         | 2012            | old_user      |           1 |                1
2022-05         | 2013            | old_user      |           8 |              214
2022-05         | 2014            | old_user      |          22 |             1093
2022-05         | 2015            | old_user      |          25 |              526
2022-05         | 2016            | old_user      |          25 |              899
2022-05         | 2017            | old_user      |          28 |             1100
2022-05         | 2018            | old_user      |          40 |             1097
2022-05         | 2019            | old_user      |          30 |              873
2022-05         | 2020            | old_user      |          30 |              673
2022-05         | 2021            | old_user      |          34 |             1328
2022-05         | 2022            | old_user      |          27 |              558
2022-05         | 2022            | new_user      |          30 |              348
2022-06         | 2013            | old_user      |           7 |              249
2022-06         | 2014            | old_user      |          17 |              979
2022-06         | 2015            | old_user      |          26 |              605
2022-06         | 2016            | old_user      |          26 |              593
2022-06         | 2017            | old_user      |          30 |              988
2022-06         | 2018            | old_user      |          39 |              941
2022-06         | 2019            | old_user      |          27 |              985
2022-06         | 2020            | old_user      |          26 |              783
2022-06         | 2021            | old_user      |          36 |              919
2022-06         | 2022            | old_user      |          44 |              606
2022-06         | 2022            | new_user      |          31 |              523
2022-07         | 2013            | old_user      |           8 |               84
2022-07         | 2014            | old_user      |          19 |             1414
2022-07         | 2015            | old_user      |          25 |              630
2022-07         | 2016            | old_user      |          24 |              558
2022-07         | 2017            | old_user      |          29 |             1209
2022-07         | 2018            | old_user      |          39 |             1199
2022-07         | 2019            | old_user      |          27 |              632
2022-07         | 2020            | old_user      |          29 |              796
2022-07         | 2021            | old_user      |          35 |             1082
2022-07         | 2022            | old_user      |          41 |              750
2022-07         | 2022            | new_user      |          38 |              632
2022-08         | 2013            | old_user      |          10 |              165
2022-08         | 2014            | old_user      |          17 |             1236
2022-08         | 2015            | old_user      |          24 |              687
2022-08         | 2016            | old_user      |          25 |              636
2022-08         | 2017            | old_user      |          29 |              961
2022-08         | 2018            | old_user      |          41 |             1145
2022-08         | 2019            | old_user      |          35 |              808
2022-08         | 2020            | old_user      |          25 |              585
2022-08         | 2021            | old_user      |          38 |              847
2022-08         | 2022            | old_user      |          50 |             1049
2022-08         | 2022            | new_user      |          40 |              589
2022-09         | 2013            | old_user      |          10 |              175
2022-09         | 2014            | old_user      |          19 |             1534
2022-09         | 2015            | old_user      |          20 |              604
2022-09         | 2016            | old_user      |          24 |              750
2022-09         | 2017            | old_user      |          23 |              735
2022-09         | 2018            | old_user      |          41 |             1302
2022-09         | 2019            | old_user      |          28 |              841
2022-09         | 2020            | old_user      |          24 |              503
2022-09         | 2021            | old_user      |          30 |              609
2022-09         | 2022            | old_user      |          54 |             1035
2022-09         | 2022            | new_user      |          25 |              261
2022-10         | 2012            | old_user      |           1 |                3
2022-10         | 2013            | old_user      |           8 |              231
2022-10         | 2014            | old_user      |          18 |             1112
2022-10         | 2015            | old_user      |          22 |              433
2022-10         | 2016            | old_user      |          25 |              789
2022-10         | 2017            | old_user      |          25 |              809
2022-10         | 2018            | old_user      |          39 |             1267
2022-10         | 2019            | old_user      |          28 |              895
2022-10         | 2020            | old_user      |          30 |              736
2022-10         | 2021            | old_user      |          27 |              382
2022-10         | 2022            | old_user      |          54 |             1040
2022-10         | 2022            | new_user      |          17 |              173
2022-11         | 2013            | old_user      |           8 |              248
2022-11         | 2014            | old_user      |          16 |             1164
2022-11         | 2015            | old_user      |          22 |              357
2022-11         | 2016            | old_user      |          23 |              675
2022-11         | 2017            | old_user      |          25 |              927
2022-11         | 2018            | old_user      |          37 |              897
2022-11         | 2019            | old_user      |          25 |              702
2022-11         | 2020            | old_user      |          25 |              679
2022-11         | 2021            | old_user      |          25 |              577
2022-11         | 2022            | old_user      |          49 |             1100
2022-11         | 2022            | new_user      |          31 |             1641
2022-12         | 2013            | old_user      |           6 |              317
2022-12         | 2014            | old_user      |          18 |              981
2022-12         | 2015            | old_user      |          23 |              543
2022-12         | 2016            | old_user      |          20 |              541
2022-12         | 2017            | old_user      |          25 |              941
2022-12         | 2018            | old_user      |          34 |              973
2022-12         | 2019            | old_user      |          28 |              935
2022-12         | 2020            | old_user      |          22 |              500
2022-12         | 2021            | old_user      |          29 |              432
2022-12         | 2022            | old_user      |          59 |             1623
2022-12         | 2022            | new_user      |          25 |              317

I plugged these data into a spreadsheet, did a few changes and a pivot table. Here’s a graph of the result.

picture

The top band, in light blue, is the “new users” band – these are users each month who are active in their first month of joining OGF. The lower bands represent each year back to OGF’s founding, in 2012 (there were only 2 users in the first year, Thilo and Joschi).

Based on that graph, I would say really OGF is quite stable. We acquire a certain number of new users each month, we lose about an equal proportion of old users, but some subset of long-term users stick around.
picture

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