I feel the below graph underscores a point I often try to make: I believe that “governance” matters. This is to say that different countries are governed in different ways, and that leads to different results. Something like this virus is a great test-scenario, since there is likely no actual difference in the way the virus itself behaves from one country to another. So the differences in the graphs below are all about the direct results of human behavior.
Caveat: Differences among nations
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Hmm. To what respect is human behavior determined by governance?
I, living in a small town in a rural county, have much better opportunities to shop, encounter friends and exercise in a scenic and tranquil outdoor environment all while obeying the rules of social distancing. For example, the weekly farmers’ market is no longer on the small main square in town, but at the expansive fairgrounds. Similarly, one of the green grocers in town has set up shop on the public square, but they don’t let you anywhere near the stand. You tell them what you’d like, and they put it in a large basket. You then put money into a small basket on a table far from the produce and retreat. They then leave the big basket and appropriate change on the table for you to collect. All very friendly and personal, but at a distance. How are you going to replicate such a safe approach in a dense urban environment like Manhattan?
That being said, I do share your opinion that governance matters. Angela Merkel worked with the state governors to develop a cohesive lockdown plan for the entire country that was very solidly communicated. Ditto for the currently loosening (even if I, personally, consider it overly loose and a tad early). In contrast, the US administration seems to be intentionally communicating very mixed signals. Moreover, people here in Germany know that they can stay home without risking their jobs if they are sick and are not worried about racking up enormous medical bills if they do contract the virus and seek treatment. As a result, the number of new cases per day plummeted here in Germany over the last few weeks, whereas the US continues to “slow burn”, killing a certain percentage of the population as it spreads.
I suppose my comments were a bit underdetermined. I was very specifically referring to the contents of the graph screenshot included – which shows e.g. the US and Italy experiencing very high rates of “deaths per million”, versus South Korea and Australia experiencing much lower rates. Canada and Germany fall somewhat in the middle.
Certainly on other parameters, the relative performance will be different. Thus, my understanding is that with respect to economic aspect, Australia and the US are having a much worse time, due to the commitment of their governments to “no social safety net” ideologies. Meanwhile, again economically, Germany or Canada might fall at the other extreme, because they have strong social safety nets, and South Korea might fall in the middle. I don’t know – I don’t know what statistic to look at to measure that.
Obviously, too, non-governance-related behavioral issues have some impact. I’m skeptical that housing density is one of them, though, given the divergence between South Korea and Italy. I expect it has to do with things like “high trust” versus “low trust” societies (which will influence the extent to which lockdown rules are properly obeyed), and also with maybe things like cultural norms about interpersonal touching: Italians are notorious for their hugging and cheek-kissing, and Americans, too, can be pretty handsy with each other, hugging and shaking hands. Meanwhile South Koreans simply don’t touch strangers if they can possibly avoid it. Giving or taking money hand-to-hand, for example, is so taboo that even convenience stores like 7-11 have little “money exchange trays” for people to use. And Australians, while informal in conduct, are also noticeably hands-off with strangers, in my experience. These factors all interact with issues of governance, of course.