Caveat: Korean Psephology Revisited From Afar

I didn’t follow the run-up to last week’s presidential election in South Korea very closely. In fact I lost track of it happening, and it took a local acquaintance more tuned in to world events than I to point out to me that it had happened last Wednesday.

But looking at and thinking about the results, I’m mostly unsurprised. I remain, as always, intrigued by the electoral map, though.

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The ancient province of Jeolla stands out as starkly and quite isolatedly leftist – more so than previous maps I’ve looked at, it seems to me.

Meanwhile, suburban Seoul seems more consistently left-leaning, too. But the rest of the country swung even more rightward, more than compensating for these leftward trends in those limited areas, and ensuring a victory for the conservative, Mr Yoon.

I would almost hazard to say the map looks like evidence of increasing polarization. Which is to say, perhaps an Americanization of Korean politics? I don’t know.

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Caveat: A few more thoughts on Korean psephology

One realization I had in looking at the election coverage yesterday (both on my TV and on the internet), was that my long-standing characterization of Ilsan (and Goyang) as fairly conservative is simply wrong. I don't really know what the basis was for that impression, but I've probably mentioned it more than once in this blog. Yet in looking at the election data, I can see that northwest suburban Seoul (indeed, most of suburban Seoul) definitely leans leftward.

What really made me notice this was the breakthrough realization that the electoral district just to the east of where I live (called 고양갑 Goyang-gap) is the home district of the just re-elected left-most member of the National Assembly, Sim Sang-jung (심상정). I had this realization in studying the electoral map, where the yellow stands out (because it represents only two districts nationally). The yellow represents the Justice Party (정의당), which is a left-leaning party – the color choices are based on party "brand" colors, but seem to be somewhat coordinated for contrast between the groups (whether by some government agency such the elections commission, I'm not sure). The map below is reproduced from wikipedia.

2016-04-13 polling place

Anyway, I after making this realization, I took the time to look back at previous electoral maps, and indeed, this leftward slant on Goyang is not recent. So I have no idea where I got the idea that Goyang was conservative – the electoral evidence belies it. So consider my earlier characterizations retracted. 

[daily log: walking, 6km]

Caveat: Excuses and Psephology

"If he wins… Black people, we gonna have to come up with another excuse." – Comedian Wanda Sykes.  This is one of those jokes that only a black person – such as Wanda – is allowed to say. 

Indeed, I may be treading on the edge of offensiveness merely by quoting it.  But I'll give it a try, because it seemed funny to me, at the time I heard it.

I learned a new word this evening:  psephology – the statistical study of elections.  I rather like this word, for some reason.  Not as much as mereological, though.  I wonder, what would it mean to practice mereological psephology?  I'll do some research.

Caveat: peninsular psephological observations

I decided to take a break from documenting my visit to Oregon and my uncle’s health crisis to address the elections held this week in South Korea.
As my sister said, off-handedly, just now, “there are no coincidences in politics.” Thus, the fact that the Kim-DJT summit in Singapore was held this week, right before the elections, can hardly be imagined but to have been some bit of orchestration on the part of the South Koreans. And the incumbent president Moon Jae-in and his left-leaning 더불어민주당 [deobuleominjudang ~ “together democratic party”] clearly had decided that the blustery leaders’ drafty summiteering would benefit them electorally. It did.
Arguably, Korea experienced a “blue wave” such as some are forecasting for the US elections this Fall. Which is odd not just because Korea isn’t in the US, but because this is a kind of Korean mid-term, and as such, just like a US mid-term, you’d expect things to swing the other way. Since Moon had won in 2016, it seemed that things should swing rightward for this election. That didn’t happen. The main right-leaning party remains in disarray following the impeachment scandals that led to Moon’s election, and Moon is benefiting from domestic fears that Mr T is going to mess things up for South Korea.
So it goes. It’s interesting to compare the 2016 electoral map and the 2018 electoral map. You see the “blue wave”, barely noticeable and somewhat ambivalent in 2016, engulfing the country this time around. I have the 2016 map in my blog post from that election. And here is this year’s, below.
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I like electoral maps. They’re interesting. Call me an amateur psephological cartographer.
picture[daily log: walking, 5km]

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